Canada is facing interesting times, to say the least. The relationship with the United States is facing tensions over trade, tariffs, border security, and defence spending. The source of the tension appears to be American concerns over Canadian “free-riding” on defence and trade, and Canada posing a threat to American security. However hyperbolic some of the grievances, Canada is poised to act. Its defence spending is set to increase to meet the NATO target of 2% of GDP; the newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney, made that commitment in his electoral platform – a commitment that all major parties running supported in their own campaign plans. The Parliamentary Budget Officer assessed the program of work outlined in Our North, Strong and Free (ONSAF) and confirmed it will bring Canada to 1.76% of GDP by 2029-30. This assessment does not include the additional cost of the planned Canadian Patrol Submarine Project which will likely bring Canada to the 2% target. For the border, the RCMP and the CBSA are implementing a series of measures on border security. The RCMP is using Blackhawk helicopters and drones to patrol the Canadian-American border in British Columbia, joint investigations are underway on opioids trafficking, and Canada has named a fentanyl Czar to coordinate the efforts to counter the drug.
The issue of defence spending has long been a difficult political issue, domestically. In terms of public priorities, some polling suggests that people are most concerned about the rising cost of living, the Canada-U.S. relationship, health care, and a range of other affordability issues with the threats from Russia and China ranking eleventh out of thirteen issues. Some public opinion polling shows that when asked an open-ended question about what concerns them most, Canadians identify defence spending as the third-least most important issue. The Canadian public is not as engaged on the issue of defence as other issues that impact them more directly, and the Government of Canada has not meaningfully engaged the public on either the importance of national defence to Canada’s place in the world or the trade-offs required to surge defence spending. Eugene Lang wrote an article in the Globe & Mail in July 2024 that discusses the need for Canada to explain to citizens the effort and trade-offs that will be required in order to reach defence spending levels that meet 2% of GDP. Lang points out that Canadians are capable of hearing hard truths, as they did during the COVID-19 pandemic, even if the Government is hesitant to do so on defence.
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